So I am planning on running a Space Wolf Scout Pack in my army. I love the fact that you can really trick out the scouts (although they can be a huge points sink). The thought of 10 dudes coming in from the back field with a melta, 2 power weapons and a MoW dude can be quite scary if your opponent leaves someone in the back field. Now what I am considering doing is attaching a Wolf Guard squad leader to come in with them, but I'm not sure what I want to outfit him with. I was thinking of Mark of the Wulfen because the only thing that really seems better than one crazy mother F'er is two! But I got to wondering if there were better options, that lead me to break out the old probability hammer and figure it out.

So with the new edition of WHFB coming out, we have new rules. All wizards are allowed to use as many dice as they like (suck it druchii) so you can have a level 1 Warlock Engineer throwing six dice at the Dreaded Thirteenth spell in order to get that 25+. And it might seem like a very good idea, I mean, who wants to miscast with your (possibly) very expensive level 4 wizard? The downfall of a miscast now is much more devastating that it was in 7th edition, so what are your odds?

When we look at rolling the dice and we look at rolling double sixes it is pretty easy to understand that when you roll two dice, the chance that you'll get a six on the first die is 1/6 and the chance you'll get a six on the second is also a 1/6. The rules of probability say that in situations like this, you multiply the two results, so the chances of getting an irresistible force/miscast on two dice is 1/36.

So as the resident math nerd, I figure I'd do a semi-regular article on the probability behind some of the things we see in 40k and WHFB.

This time I'm going to look at weapons that "Gets Hot!" So what I looked at was the chance of surviving firing one of these weapons. So for a "Gets Hot!" if you roll a 1 on the to hit roll, the weapon has overloaded and the firing model suffers a wound.